The stuff they say about Ebola Part V of many

I am quite happy with the resounding impact these last Ebola posts have had on the many people who have been commenting on LinkedIn or just popping in for reading the blog. This proves that Ebola is not only viral on the field, its also viral on the web. 

Today you are about to be gobsmacked with the lively daily news concerning vaccines to be tested. Especially with the fact that there are a few who state they can cure it. Its for you to criticise and for me to offer you the opportunity to have a go on the stuff they say about Ebola:

Do you believe the United States of Africa Health Organisation (AHO) can save Africa from Ebola? [Access here]

"I have developed Ebola vaccines in the same way as I have developed for HIV and Malaria Vaccines. At the moment I am looking grant for Malaria vaccines to do animal Module with partners in South Africa and I have published and present my paper 2013. For HIV vaccines I am awarded to present and publish my paper on November 2014. I have sample vaccines for Ebola Virus to do animal module via chimpanzees. I would like to ask you that if you know any Research Institutions, CDC, WHO, UN and AU whom are dealing with Ebola vaccines research and development, I Dr Zelalem Kiros willing to do an agreement to solve this problem with expertise. "

Ebola Outbreak: Thailands Siriraj Hospital Creates Antibody 

Treatment for Deadly Virus [Access here]

"A Thai hospital has claimed to have successfully developed an "antibody treatment" against the Ebola virus that has killed over 3,000 people in West Africa this year. Siriraj Hospital at Mahidol University doctors state they have developed a formula that will trigger antibodies to fight the disease. The development could lead to a treatment applied after infection, as opposed to a pre-infection vaccine, to stimulate the bodys natural immune system to fight off infection."

Lesson #5 - Some report a breakthrough, some report a cure. But data is what helps us make a judgement.

Image taken from [http://www.techtimes.com/articles/11829/20140802/u-s-wants-to-test-ebola-vaccine-on-humans-by-september.htm]

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The stuff they say about Ebola Part III of many

Beefing and Marburg are the very first lessons from a plethora of arguments dividing opinions throughout the web, whenever Ebola is the hot topic. And Ebola is indeed the hot topic of the moment! I have been covering the cacophony that emerges on a daily basis all over the web, but focusing my attention on the variety of forums on LinkedIn. Some experts and other plebeians who just like me enjoy knowing more have helped keep the fire burning, and kept this subject lively and modern, That is to remain untouched until the BIG media companies find something else tremendously scary and decoy our attention to a fresh focus of interest. For the time being, I am still learning with the stuff they say about Ebola, and I hope you feel the same way!

Social Data for Ebola Surveillance [Access here]

"Anonymized data that revealed the geographical movements of 150,000 mobile phone users in Senegal is being used by Swedish nonprofit Flowminder to help predict how travel might shape the spread of Ebola. “If there are outbreaks in other countries, this might tell what places connected to the outbreak location might be at increased risk of new outbreaks,” Flowminder cofounder and Executive Director Linus Bengtsson told MIT Technology Review."

Can a person catch Ebola if::: [Access here]

"...if micro hand-sanitization dispensers, where passengers can clean hands without leaving their seat as much as they want, would be well received by passengers and crew? Surveys of 1,826 passengers and crew overwhelmingly agree. Airlines choose to distance themselves from addressing the problem."

"The sanitizer formulation is nonflammable, and much softer on the hands. We also have a moderately alcohol based formulation that is FAA approved; however, our surveys indicate passengers and crew would be more resistant to using the alcohol based product."

Lesson #3 - When a window of opportunity opens, they mean business!

Image taken from PSA: Samsung Wave Shipping with Virus [http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/02/psa-samsung-wave-shipping-with-virus/]

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What about the toxicology of burning bay leaf wood as a source of fuel

On the 18th of January 2015, a blog visitor known as TheRegulator posted a real interesting question in the most famous blog entry Ive written so far, the one on the toxicity of Bay Leaf. His/Her question was:

"I would like to pose a question of a different focus regarding bay leaf. Your article, questions and comments all focus on the leaf. But what about the toxicology of burning bay leaf wood as a source of fuel? The burning of certain tree woods are more toxic than others. One specie of tree, for example, is so toxic that the inhalation, ingestion or touch poses a health risk."

Incredibly juicy this question!!! Had I some more free time and Id be researching this topic like a mole on steroids, but my work has forced me to look very briefly into it. TheRegulator could have helped by stating exactly the name of the species that is known to release extremely toxic fumes when burned. But I did not quit and I found it.

I investigated, during the very limited free time I have in between the final year of my PhD, nappies and my own business, and I found some nice literature on the topic:

Polyciclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) - molecules present in Laurus Nobilis leaves that have been utilised as indicators of air pollution in Tuscany (for example). The mean PAH foliar levels in laurel leaves are well correlated with PAH air concentration [1], thus providing a good estimate of the PAHs respiratory burden. But this did not provide me with the necessary information. I was inclined to believe that any toxicity derived from burning bay leaf wood would have to do with the combustion of the oils/volatile compounds found in its composition. But apart from L. Nobilis antibacterial and fungicidal properties [2] I could not find any information pointing to toxicity of combustion fumes. In fact, Laurus Nobilis is my favourite bronchopulmonary disinfectant.

But then suddenly my research offered me some interesting and scary results. Camphor Laurel!!!! Camphor Laurel, scientifically known as Cinnamomum camphora, when burned produces significant amounts of many chemicals believed to be toxic and even carcinogenic [3]. There are studies that report this plants combustion smokes as responsible for many animal deaths, especially in Australia [3]:

A less lethal species, the Cherry Laurel - Prunus laurocerasus can also be seen as incredibly dangerous if combusted as it contain cyanolipids that release cyanide and benzaldehyde (toxic agents).

There are anecdotal reports all over the internet of common people burning laurel prunings without any issues. But what laurel prunings??? That is the RIGHT question! Most of us are worried about the hydrogen cyanide that is released during the combustion, due to cyanogenic glycosides present in the leaves of the Cherry Laurel. During its combustion/maceration, the cyanogenic glycosides will become hydrogen cyanide, glucose and benzaldehyde [4]. Cyanide kills by starving the central nervous system of oxygen and has been used by entomologists to kill insects without inflicting physical pain. Benzaldehyde...

In summary:

Combustion fumes from Camphor laurel wood = Extremely dangerous, especially if youre in Australia!

Combustion fumes from Prunus laurocerasus wood = Very dangerous. Avoid whenever possible;

Combustion fumes from Laurus Nobilis wood = Unlikely to cause any harm if handled properly, but it is better to avoid exaggeration.

[1] Lodovici, M., Akpan, V., Casalini, C., Zappa, C., Dolara, P. (1998). "Polyciclic aromatic hydrocarbons  in Laurus Nobilis leaves as a measure of air pollution in urban and rural sites of Tuscany". Chemosphere, 36(8), pp.1703-1712.

[2] Bay Laurel, Laurus Nobilis, leaves, [http://quickbooker.org/kunden/wildherbsofcrete_com/pages/portraits-of-our-essential-oils-from-wild-herbs-of-crete/laurus-nobilis.php], last visited on the 21st of January 2015, last update unknown.

[3] Camphor Laurel - NSW Scientific Committee - final determination, [http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/determinations/camphorlaurelktp.htm], last visited on the 21st of January 2015, last update on the 28th of February 2011.

[4] The MAK collection for Occupational Health and Safety, Benzaldehyde, [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/3527600418.mb10052e0017/pdf], last visited on the 21st of January 2015, last updated on the 15th of october 1998.

1st image kindly taken from frametoframe, [http://frametoframe.ca/2013/10/poison-garden-blarney-castle-ireland/].

2md image taken from Camphor Laurel Menace, [http://www.camphorlaurel.com.au/].

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The stuff they say about Ebola Part I of many

This post isnt supposed to throw fire at anyone for their beefing; there is no wrongdoing whatsoever in these statements. This is just a mere review on the different opinions on Ebola that have been populating discussions throughout the many different LinkedIn groups. Whenever possible I try to explore both sides of the story to keep balance or some sort of equilibrium between schools of thought. I decided to collect the most interesting statements and they are hereby listed for your own enjoyment and learning:

How the Ebola outbreak turned in to a racism and responsibility debate [access here]

The news has sparked an ethical debate over equality of access to medical care and racism as two white Americans were given potentially life-saving treatment [ZMapp] denied to hundreds of Africans.

"...there are parallel questions over “the ethics of rushing forward with experimental [drugs] that haven’t been put through any clinical trials and whose safety and efficacy are unknown.”

Debate erupts on repurposed drugs for Ebola [access here]
Eleanor Fish is frustrated. The immunologist at the University of Toronto in Canada thinks she knows how to help save the lives of people battling Ebola—but nobody seems interested. Fish believes health care workers and people exposed to the virus should take Infergen, a synthetic interferon ? that she has studied extensively and that has been used widely to treat hepatitis C and several other diseases. Pharmunion BSV Development, the Ukrainian company that makes it, has offered to ship 60,000 vials to Africa for free.

Just a month ago, WHO said it would be unethical and unwise to use such interventions at this time (Science, 25 July, p. 364). But the treatment of two U.S. patients who contracted Ebola in Liberia with an experimental antibody cocktail called ZMapp has shifted public perceptions, says Armand Sprecher of Doctors Without Borders in Brussels. 

Scentists show how Ebola disables initial immune defenses [access here]
"Our study is the first to show how Ebola viral protein 24 defeats the signal sent by interferons, the key signaling molecules in the bodys early response to Ebola virus infection," notes Christopher F. Basler, Ph.D., professor of microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and an author of the newly published paper. "These newfound details of Ebola biology are already serving as the foundation of a new drug development effort, albeit in its earliest stages."

Lesson #1 - Scientists do beef too.

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The stuff they say about Ebola Are we all gonna die Part 3 of 3

Finally we reach an end, but not for the probable (yet pleading for statistical proof) outbreak. The world went bananas with Ebola for a while, the news made it the red hot topic alongside the Islamic State. Ebola is here to stay, not only in the affected regions, but also in the different communication vias spread through a globalised world of words, images and sounds. A lot has been done and said, overall the organisations acted late but still in time to correct a lazy initial approach. Procedures were inadequate and knowledge outside the Ebola niches was deficient, but now it seems that things are progressing much better, with one or two cases of PLAIN stupidity surging here and there. 

There arent reasons for panicking, so if you want to panic, go panic over FLU or NOROVIRUS since Winter is coming. Obviously, if the proper measures arent taken, one will have to be worried sick because sick will be a common word. 

The literature on Ebola, as a consequence of the investment on research, is now readily available if it wasnt already. People just didnt really care. The depth of knowledge is definitely increasing as researchers and lab personnel are now more aware of the correct way to process Ebola samples, for example.

I was personally badly impressed with the lack of altruism, empathy and philanthropy from ignorant people, who not only are damn ignorant but they are also very selfish. I remember reading somewhere comments from very few Illuminati Americans who dont represent the norm, Thank God, asking for policies against those who were helping Ebola patients in Africa. Comments like "... they knew what they were going for... now dont let them in because they will infect us". Wow, that is really nice and recommendable to portrait such disregard for the human kind and such disbelief in your own countrys health authorities. I am glad that representatives like President Obama had the guts to say that he did not fear meeting them face-to-face and shake their hands.

There is still a long way to go if the world wishes to reduce the exposure risk to this or other uncommon viruses. Nevertheless, the answer to the question "Are we all gonna die" is blatantly clear, YES. YES WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE. Most of all we are going to die because of the very same top 10 causes of death that have been tackling us til 2012:

[1]

And figures will be pretty much the same as predictions up to 2030 do not include EBOLA. What we can say is that, regardless of what you do, if you panic or not, if you get proper information or not, you and I are going to die, but its very unlikely that Ebola will be our grim ripper. 

Im glad I was of help to all my readers. You know you make this blog a better place whenever you visit it. But I have to move on, there will be plenty of people writing plenty of stuff about Ebola. I for one need to move on to other "big man tings now", this aint cool anymore. But I promise to be alert.

[1] WHO, The top 10 causes of death, [http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/], last visited on the 29th of October 2014, last uopdated on May 2014.

1st image taken from The keep-calm-o-matic, [http://www.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/p/keep-calm-or-not-we-are-all-going-to-die/].

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The stuff they say about Ebola Half way through

I promise I am half way through the cortege and the forecourt already holds a lot of stuff we didnt

really know about. It has been fun, but overall fulfilling to read so much and such variety of opinions about this hot topic Ebola. Because its Saturday and TV will be flooded with cooking shows, I will follow the same tendency and present you with a nice two-dish menu where "spicy" is definitely the dominant note. Welcome to the scientific gourmet of the stuff they say about Ebola.

Ebola could reach the U.S. by the end of this month [Access here]

"There is an 18 percent chance that a case of the Ebola virus will reach the United States by the end of September, according to a study published on Tuesday in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. Despite restrictions reducing travel in and out of the infected countries by 80 percent, the study, which analyzes global flight patterns, suggests that a case of Ebola in the U.S. is becoming increasingly harder to avoid. It also lists the chance of the virus reaching the United Kingdom between 25 and 28 percent."

"Yes, ebola could reach America in the next four weeks. I could also get hit by a cement truck this morning or have my building commandeered by some Muslim extremists. Ebola is a serious disease, but lets not panic over the possibilities."

"I dont think it is about panic. I think its about trying to get the American public, which is often preoccupied with trivia, to take note. I have been watching the numbers since the outbreak started, and the disease is increasing exponentially. Not our problem TODAY! However, the world has moved very slowly on this. The article would suggest that we get out of ourselves, and push OUR government to get more involved IMMEDIATELY! True enough, if it came here, we MIGHT control it quickly. However...anyone reading this want to volunteer to be one of the hand-full that do get it? Its not a joke!"

WHO: Fight Ebola Now, Solve Patent Issues Later [Access here]

“At the end, when the Ebola outbreak will fortunately be terminated, there will need to be discussions with the owners of the patents and the manufacturers who are making these products to see how they can be made available at appropriate and affordable cost to the populations who need them,” she added."

"The expert consultation also concluded that in addition to blood therapies and candidate vaccines, it is worth considering “the availability and evidence supporting the use of novel therapeutic drugs, including monoclonal antibodies, RNA-based drugs, and small anti-viral molecules,” as well as the potential use of existing drugs approved for other diseases, according to the statement."

Lesson #6 - Action or Reaction (if you prefer) is already taking place. Panic is never an educated response to anything.

Image taken from bloglovin, [http://www.bloglovin.com/blog/post/1673193/3522599011]

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The stuff they say about Ebola Excaliburs Circus

Its good enough that Ebola sick priests are taken from Africa to European countries and end up testifying poor health & safety protocols in action. Even worse when a NURSE ends up infected and people are dragged into quarantine when everyone knows that this is a serious disease. These quarantined people are direct elements in the spinning off of a disease, just like main characters in a horror movie that starts gathering quite a public (as in a cult movement). But when during a press conference for acknowledging that the problem escaped their control, the one responsible for the whole health & safety process there in the hospital, blatantly stated : -"We currently dont know how it happened". 

Seriously???? Jesus Christ, I understand kids saying that to their parents when they break the sweets jar, but friends, Ebola kills fast, real fast! If those responsible for a nations health dont really seem to care that much to have procedures running under tight control, well, lets all wave the anarchy flag because that is anarchy. Because when you have a supposed epidemic outburst, theres a dead individual already in the infamous equation, another infected priest in the very end of the segment, a nurse who just contracted the disease, and all you have to say is "I dont know how it happened", like if it was a flue or like the Penicillin stock vanished? The Spanish Health Authorities made a fool of themselves with this slippery slope. But it gets even more ludicrous, midst quarantines that are perfectly acceptable theres an element to pay with its life - the dog - Excalibur!

The poor animal is to be punished for the systems inadequate equipment and poor training. Some might say the disease needs proper handling. Threatening to kill the dog is just an imature, irresponsile, hysterical way of health authorities there to claim they are actually doing something. L-U-D-I-C-R-O-U-S, my friends, ludicrous. By the way, if you kill the dog instead of quarantining it, you better kill everyone because I see the dog as the least responsible for this whole bleeding mess. It got to such a soap-opera state that the poor nurses husband is campaigning for the life of this animal... time passes by and I am forced to ask, what have the Spanish Health Authorities put in action since the nurses infection? A dead penalty to a dog, with court permission and the triggering of a campaign for life when in the very beginning we are talking about a disease that causes rapid death.

I am a vegetarian activist for animal welfare, but I am first of all a scientist. If the dog had to go I would totally accept it... as a scientist. Shall common sense prevail the human species would dignify that canine existence somehow for the sake of the human kind (like naming the coming vaccine Excalibur, or something of that sort). But the dog doesnt need to go, what needs to happen is responsible people to sit down, talk about the processes and protocols and prepare staff and facilities for a serious issue.

This circus will never help anyone but to promote chaos, misinformation and disbelief. Spain really messed up big time with this one.

Lesson #7 - When one needs to drive attention away, one kills the weakest link.

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All About Wool

...to maintain ones self on this earth is not a hardship but a pastime,

 if we live simply and wisely.

-H.D. Thoreau

cleaned, combed, and dyed wool roving ready to be spun or felted

Yesterday I had the opportunity to volunteer for a wonderful event at the Oakland Museum? called FELT, the first of a four part series called the Seed Circus, including sheep and felt, foraging, pickling and fermentation, and the fall harvest.  Sponsored by The Greenhorns, a land-based non profit serving young farmers across America, this event educated all about wool from the livestock to the spindle.  There were some local artists doing wet felted rugs and clothing, even a farmer who brought two of his East Friesian sheep to demonstrate sheering.  I learned that East Friesians are a good breed for both wool  and dairy.  We took home a big bag of the freshly sheered wool (pictured below).  It was surprising to feel how oily it is and pretty stinky too, but once picked and washed will make nice material for felting projects.  Needless to say we had a great time.  Check the links for dates on the next three events to come. 

raw wool fresh off of the sheep

It Takes a Village.....to Eat a Zucchini?

I found this zucchini hiding in the garden tonight after two hot days.  I have heard of these monstrosities getting dropped off secretly on neighbors doorsteps but have not yet grown one myself until now.  This squash is most probably destined for the dehydrator.

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The stuff they say about Ebola Are we all gonna die Part 1 of 3

A lot has been spat throughout the different media channels of communication, bottom line is that personally I believe contingency plans are failing. Why? I dont want to start a conspiracy theory here, but when having to deal with such ailment governments and health authorities can not plead ignorance; what I saw was the dragging of  decision-making procedures and poorly conducted protocols. I saw loads of action in allowing pharma companies to use untested drugs, something so unprecedented that takes me back to what was generated by the avian and swine flues propaganda some years back. I dont want to say these poor approaches were to serve the intents of Big Pharma, that is just not the case; it is better to assume that health authorities like WHO and governments of well developed countries just didnt really think this would spread so quickly. In a word, leniency. It was in Africa last month so what the hell should we worry about - they thought! I am not convinced of an outbreak per se, numbers prove it, unless you bend the definition of outbreak, but then Influenza should gather a lot more attention. Anyway, there are a lot of loop-holes in all of the things said and done in the media; some by ignorant people and some by very informed/qualified individuals. I will contribute my way with what I read and was written by scientists with proper opinions. Opinions I personally consider of value, for an example of a good conversation access here. Here it is for you, my answer to the question inside all our heads. 

Are we all gonna die? 

The answer can be found in Part 3

How Ebola disables initial immune responses?

"Researchers report that they have discovered a mechanism unique to the Ebola virus that defeats attempts by interferon to block viral reproduction in infected cells. They say their study [find here] explains for the first time how the production by the virus of a protein called Ebola Viral Protein 24 (eVP24) stops the interferon-based signals from ramping up immune defenses. With the bodys first response disabled, the virus is free to mass produce itself and trigger the too large immune response that damages organs and often becomes deadly as part of the Ebola virus disease (EVD)."

Taken from GEN News Highlights

Ebola Outbreak Underestimated

"During a recent press conference, Joanne Liu, international president of Doctors Without Borders, guessed it would take officials around six months to contain the outbreak, Reuters reported.

In an email to ScienceInsider, the WHO said it is considering administering the blood of people whove survived Ebola infection nto those who fall ill to the virus. Convalescent serum is high on our list of potential therapies and has been used in other outbreaks, the organisation told Science.

Still, when treating Ebola-infected patients, there is not a lot of extra time to experiment with unproven therapies, wrote Armad Sprecher, an epidemiologist and public health specialist at Doctors Without Borders, in New Republic. We cannot subject our patients to all of the possible things that might work. We have to chose wisely".

Taken from Pharmaceutical Microbiology

Ebola Researchers to test vaccine on humans, sequence virusgenomes

"The National Institute of Allergy and Infectios Diseases will test a potential Ebola Virus vaccine [find here] on humans starting next week.

"The vaccine, developed by the NIAID and GlaxoSmithKline... Today we know the best way to prevent the spread of Ebola infection is through public health measures, including good infection control practices, isolation, contact tracing, quarantine, and provision of personal protective equipment, NIAID Director Anthony S. Fauci said in a press release. However, a vaccine will ultimately be an important tool in the prevention effort. "The launch of Phase 1 Ebola vaccine studies is the first step in a long process.

Researchers from the Broad Institute and Harvard University have teamed up to take on the task, in hopes of putting and end to the outbreak. Collecting 99 virus genomes from Sierra Leone patients, the researchers found more than 300 genetic distinctionsthat separate this epidemic from previous outbreaks.

The team used the deep sequencing [find here] technique to inspect each genome at an average of 2,000 times."

Taken from Genome

Image obtained from News Channel 3, [http://wtkr.com/2014/08/11/report-ebola-outbreak-likely-started-by-2-year-old-in-guinea/]

To be continued

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The stuff they say about Ebola Part II of many

Hello everyone, I am still working on this series of effervescent debates that have become viral (spot the irony?), not only throughout LinkedIn but basically everywhere Ebola is the main topic. Because I find the topic extremely interesting and the plethora of diverging opinions, panic attacks and hysteria, strong generators of chaos, I realised there is a need for intervention!!! My intervention is simple, to just present, whenever possible, both sides of story of this long tale of stuff they say about Ebola. Moving on...

Drug Cured 16 of 16 Monkeys with Viral Ebola Relative [access here]

"An experimental drug saved the lives of 16 of 16 monkeys with the Marburg virus, a killer near-indistinguishable from Ebola, just as symptoms broke out, said a new study. Thomas Geisbert, senior author of the new Science Translational Medicine study, said treatment with an siRNA molecule, wrapped in a lipid nanoparticle, saved macaque monkeys even when administered on Day 3 post-infection, when animals began showing symptoms. All control animals who did not receive the Tekmira Pharmaceuticals drug— TKM Marburg— died between days seven and nine. SiRNA keeps the virus from replicating by binding to messenger RNA."

"There is some dispute, however, over the main attraction of TKM Marburg; that is, the claim that it works as the first symptoms appear. While the Geisbert team reported that on Day 3 their monkeys began to show symptoms, Tulane University tropical disease specialist Daniel Bausch disagrees. Bausch left Sierra Leone in July, only a few days before a Tulane colleague—Sheik Umar Khan— contracted Ebola while treating patients, and later died. “Average incubation time in humans is eight to 10 days. Less in monkeys, but still greater than three days,” Bausch, who was not involved in the Science study, told Drug."

Lesson #2 - Marburg is a viral disease first identified in 1967 in Marburg,former Youguslavian Republics Belgrade and Frankfurt (Germany). The epidemics started after infected monkeys imported from Uganda. It is one of the most virulent pathogens known to humans and it is responsible for high fatality rates. Multiple site bleeding, severe headaches and severe malaise are the commonest symptoms. [1]

[1] WHO - Marburg Virus Disease, [http://www.who.int/csr/disease/marburg/en/], last visited on the 27th of September 2014, last updated somewhen in 2014.

Image produced from [http://www.tekmira.com/] main page.

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The stuff they say about Ebola Are we all gonna die Part 2 of 3

I am almost done with this topic that has been all over the news fro quite a while, unfortunately! Some of them channels broadcast an intense graphical set of images; images some minds would consider unnecessary violent and unnecessary awareness. I just watched a woman that had perished on a piece of carton paper being taken by two members of staff from some health department in Sierra Leone, as they were preparing themselves to drag the body away. In the eyes of the deceased womans family members, I saw apathy. Not the kind of apathy that resembles disrespect, distance, detachment, but the sort of apathy stamped by the "What can I do?"-attitude.

The question to "Are we all gonna die" is still answered, but I know the answer already. Ill save it for part three, the final part of this rambling through the Ebola pastures. I hope you stick around for yet another perspective I managed to extract from a series of articles written by people who know well what they are talking about.

"The Mathematics of Ebola trigger stark warnings: Act now or regret it"

"... a piece published last week in the Journal Eurosurveillance, which is the peer-reviewed publication of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (the EUs Stockholm-based version of the US CDC). The piece is an attempt to assess mathematically how the epidemic is growing, by using case reports to determine the reproductive number. (Note for non-epidemiology geeks: The basic reproductive number - usually shorted to Ro or R-nought - expresses how many cases of disease are likely to be caused by any one infected person. An Ro of less than 1 means an outbreak will die out; an Ro of more than 1 means an outbreak can be expected to increase. If you saw the movie Contagion, this is what Kate Winslet stood up and wrote on a whiteboard early in the film)."

"In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014."

"The level of response to the Ebola outbreak is totally inadequate. At the CDC, we learned that a military-style response during a major health crisis saves lives... We need to establish large field hospitals staffed by Americans to treat the sick. We need to implement infection-control practices to save the lives of health-care providers. We need to staff burial teams to curb disease transmission at funerals. We need to implement systems to detect new flare-ups that can be quickly extinguished. A few thousand U.S. troops could provide the support that is so desperately needed."

"There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night:

The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africas population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums...

The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly bur are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible trough the air... viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola viruss hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice."

Taken from Superbug by Maryn McKenna

Image taken from Wired, [http://www.wired.com/2011/09/contagion-questions-spoilers/all/].

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The stuff they say about Ebola Part IV of many

Like Chariots of Fire I go hunting flames from the different incendiary outbursts on the hottest topic in science at the moment, Ebola. This is part 4 of many I predict well be reading in choir. Today I could not escape a magnificent intervention from a commentator on the second part of this group of "stuff they say about Ebola" on LinkedIns forum, but that will have a special edition tomorrow as Ill cover ready-made vaccines, untested cures, cures without vectors and vectors without permission. Complicated??? I guess so, but thats stuff they say about Ebola, not me. Today, Id especially put emphasis on Bruce Ribners opinions because thats an incredible clear approach with no ifs and buts and mights.

Ebola doctors reveal how infected Americans were cured [Access here]

"What we found in general is that among our Ebola patients, because of the amount of fluid they lost through diarrhea and vomiting, they had a lot of electrolyte abnormalities. And so replacing that with standard fluids [used in hospital settings] without monitoring will not do a very good job of replacing things like sodium and potassium. In both of our patients we found those levels to be very low. One of the messages we will be sending back to our colleagues is even if you don’t have the equipment to measure these levels, do be aware this is occurring when patients are having a lot of body fluid loss."

"Experimental drugs are experimental drugs because we don’t know if they will work. That is true both with the preparations patients received in Liberia and other preparations that are being considered for treating patients with this infectious disease. We are a long way from being able to say that someone that received one of these agents benefited, it had no impact or it may be that their outcome may be impeded. Until we have good studies looking at outcomes of patients who received these medications, compared to patients who didn’t receive them, we should be very cautious."

"The focus should remain on aggressive intensive care and the ability to correct abnormalities metabolically, rather than receiving any magic vaccine or product that may or may not improve survival."

"As we have been saying all along, we feel that the high fatality rates in developing parts of the world where this infection occurs are because of the lack of resources. We had always felt that the survival of patients with proper support would be a lot better than in developing countries."

Lesson #4 - A clear message is always a confident message, but a confident message might not always be that clear.

Image taken from the article mentioned above, [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ebola-doctor-reveals-how-infected-americans-were-cured/]

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